New York Mets pitcher Kodai Senga is struggling in his first three starts of 2026, allowing 23 hits and 10 walks in 17.1 innings, resulting in an earned run average of 8.83 as he has given up 17 runs.

Kodai Senga’s struggles are likely related to his pitching approach. Throughout his major league career, Senga has excelled when he pitches inside the plate. For example, right-handers have a batting average of .216 with four home runs against his inside pitches since 2023. Senga has achieved similar success against left-handers, who have hit .217 with 3 home runs off his inside pitches.

Unfortunately, Kodai Senga does not like to pitch inside. For example, he has thrown 1,131 pitches toward the left-handed batter’s box against right-handed hitters, which accounts for 22.5% of his total pitches. This is 4.8% higher than the percentage of his pitches thrown inside to right-handers.

Kodai Senga’s tendency to locate pitches away makes his pitch selection all the more dumbfounding. The cut fastball has been one of his favorite pitches throughout his career. He has thrown it 1,153 times, 22.9% of his total pitches. He throws this pitch with minimal horizontal movement, as he averages 0.3 inches of arm size movement since 2023. 

The lack of movement from the pick might suggest he would use it mainly against right-handed batters, since, as a right-handed pitcher, the pitch would move in toward them. However, he has only thrown the cut fastball to right-handed batters 43% of the time, which is 14% less than his usage against left-handed batters.

The increased use of the pitch against left-handed batters raises the chance that it ends up near the middle of the plate. On May 17, 2023, Kodai Senga faced the Tampa Bay Rays at home. In the fourth inning, he threw a cut fastball to Brandon Lowe, which landed down the middle of the plate. Brandon hit it down the right field line for a double. This double contributed to left-handed hitters having a .288 average against the cut fastball (going 42 for 146).

This is 44 percentage points more than right-handed hitters, who have hit .244 (going 31 for 127). I bring the pitch up because opposing hitters have an over-.500 batting average against it this season.

He is most likely throwing the cutter in this fashion because of his success with the four-seam fastball. He has seen success throwing the four-seam fastball away from hitters. For instance, left-handed hitters are hitting 197 (going 14 for 71) on four-seamers away since 2023. On the other hand , right-handers are hitting 256 ( going 11 for 43 ) . As a whole, opposing teams are hitting 219 on four seamers away.

However, the four-seamer has significantly more horizontal movement compared to the cutter. The four-seamer has averaged 7.1 inches of arm-side movement since 2023. Therefore, these pitches are less likely to end up in the middle of the plate when he throws them toward the outside half.

His strategy should be: if a pitch has minimal movement, throw it inside. On the other hand, if the pitch has more horizontal movement, it is acceptable to go outside.