The Toronto Blue Jays organization showed support for closer Jeff Hoffman after he gave up the lead against Arizona. On April 19, 2026, manager John Schneider told the media he still trusts Hoffman as a closer.

I have a lot of confidence in Jeff Hoffman,” manager John Schneider said. “I feel for him right now because he’s going through it. I get it; when you’re in that spot, it gets magnified, and that’s part of it. He’s man enough to handle it.”

“If there’s a situation to close out a game,” Schneider added, “I’ll take Jeff Hoffman.”

Despite the words of encouragement, Schneider did not give a particular reason for Hoffman’s struggles. However, statistics indicate that Jeff Hoffman has altered his pitching approach . Over his first 10 appearances in 2026, Jeff has made one change to his pitching approach, aiming to get more ground balls.

Jeff Hoffman’s Arm Angle

Jeff has significantly reduced his overall arm angle from his 2024 season with the Philadelphia Phillies. He had a 40-degree arm angle in 2024. Jeff lowered it by three degrees in his first season with the Toronto Blue Jays to 37 degrees. He has lowered it even further in 2026 to 30 degrees.

The reduced arm angle has significantly affected the performance of his pitches. Jeff has thrown the four-seam fastball 842 times since 2024, 36.2% of the time. In 2024, he had an arm angle of 39.5 degrees on a pitch with the Philadelphia Phillies. The arm angle has dropped by 2.9 degrees since joining the Toronto Blue Jays.

As a result, he is generating less vertical movement. For example, he produced 17.6 inches of vertical break on his four-seam fastball during his last season with the Phillies in 2024. Vertical break is the amount of vertical movement a pitcher produces without factoring in gravity. Jeff Hoffman’s vertical break has dropped by 6.2% as a Toronto Blue Jay, averaging a vertical break of 16.5 inches.

Although he has seen a decrease in vertical movement, the decreased arm angle has helped him generate more horizontal movement. The horizontal movement has increased by 5.7%, going from 12.2 inches of arm side movement with Philadelphia to 12.9 with the Blue Jays.

Unfortunately, gravity has been working against Jeff Hoffman. During his Toronto tenure, he has averaged a 13 inches vertical drop—a 10.2% increase from his Philadelphia days, when he averaged 11.8 inches in 2024. Vertical drop measures vertical movement under the influence of gravity.

Furthermore, Baseball Servant indicates that his horizontal movement hasn’t been affected by gravity. These changes have allowed Jeff Hoffman to generate 82 ground balls from 194 batted ball events. As a result, the ground ball rate is 42.3%, 4.7% higher than his last season in Philadelphia.

Unfortunately, these changes have reduced the fastball’s spin. In 2024, the fastball averaged 2,609 revolutions per minute. During his Blue Jays tenure, the spin rate dropped to 2,560 revolutions per minute.

Results

According to Rapsodo, a lower spin rate makes it easier for hitters to figure out where the ball will end up. 

“High spin rates often result in more extreme movement (think wicked sliders or riding fastballs), while low spin rates tend to generate less break and are more hittable”. 

As a result, it increases the likelihood of hitters connecting the barrel of the bat—the thickest, most powerful part of the bat—to the baseball. Hitters had a barrel per plate appearance percentage of 4.9% vs Jeff Hoffman’s four seam fastball during his final season in Philadelphia. During his tenure in Toronto, the barrel per plate appearance increased by 10%.

The increased barrel rate has contributed to hitters performing better against Jeff Hoffman. During his final season in Philadelphia, Hitters had a batting average of 200 with 6 home runs. It contributed to his giving up 16 runs in 66.1 innings, resulting in an ERA of 2.17.

In Toronto, hitters have a batting average of 227 with 17 home runs. As a result, he has given up 44 runs in 77.1, accumulating an ERA of 4.77. 

The fastball is a primary pitch I used to showcase this issue. However, the same effect is happening to his other pitches. Therefore, I recommend that Jeff raise his arm angle more often to generate more spin on the baseball, making it harder for hitters to predict its trajectory.